宏观与大类资产周报：春节期间国内文旅消费旺盛，海外市场波动较大

Market Performance - During the Spring Festival (January 27 - February 3), global equity markets showed divergence, with all three major US indices declining: Dow Jones down 0.01%, S&P 500 down 1.75%, and Nasdaq down 2.82%[1] - In contrast, Chinese assets performed well, with the China Dragon Index rising 0.72% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.75%[1] Domestic Consumption - From January 28 to February 4, the total number of cross-regional movements in China is expected to reach 2.3 billion, a 5.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024[2] - The box office for the Spring Festival period reached 8.33 billion yuan, marking a 25.8% increase from 2024[2] Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI fell from 50.1% to 49.1% in January, indicating a contraction and exceeding seasonal expectations[2] - The production index dropped from 52.1% to 49.8%, and the new orders index fell from 51% to 49.2%[2] US Economic Developments - In Q4 2024, the US GDP growth rate was 2.3%, slightly down but still above 2%, with private consumption contributing 2.8% to GDP growth[4] - The PCE inflation rate rose from 2.45% to 2.55% in December, while core PCE slightly decreased from 2.82% to 2.79%[4] Trade Policy Changes - On February 1, the US announced a 10% tariff on all goods imported from China, with potential increases in average tariff rates leading to a rise in US inflation by approximately 0.13%[3][22] - China responded by imposing tariffs on certain US imports starting February 10, including a 15% tariff on coal and LNG[3][22]