Economic Performance - The US GDP growth for 2024 has been revised down from 2.1% to 2.0%[9] - The unemployment rate for 2024 is projected to increase from 4.0% to 4.4%[9] - PCE inflation for 2024 is adjusted down from 2.6% to 2.3%[9] Market Trends - In December, US retail sales increased by 0.4%, below the expected 0.6%[12] - The December non-farm payrolls added 256,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 165,000[17] - The December CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[18] Asset Performance - The performance of major asset classes in Q4 2024 shows equities down by 10.49% and commodities down by 15.04%[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to be around 4.4% in 2024[10] Currency Analysis - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index was at 98.36, reflecting a 3.04% change[22] - The USD to offshore RMB exchange rate is projected to fluctuate, impacting trade dynamics[32] Monetary Policy - The Federal funds rate is expected to be at 4.375% in 2024, with four rate cuts anticipated[9] - By the end of 2025, the rate is projected to drop below 3.5%[9]
2024年四季度美国经济表现及人民币走势观点分享
Xin Yong An Guo Ji Zheng Quan·2025-02-05 09:24