【粤开宏观】特朗普打响“加征关税2.0”第一枪：原因、影响、推演及应对

Group 1: Tariff Actions and Rationale - Trump signed an executive order on February 1, 2025, imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on products from Canada and Mexico, effective February 4, 2025[1] - The tariffs are justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), citing threats from illegal immigration and drugs[5] - The U.S. imports from China, Canada, and Mexico accounted for over 40% of total U.S. imports in 2023, with trade deficits from these countries being significant[6] Group 2: Economic Impact on China - The 10% tariff on Chinese goods is expected to reduce China's export growth to the U.S. by 12 percentage points in 2025, impacting overall export growth by 1.8 percentage points[16] - Labor-intensive goods such as furniture and toys are particularly vulnerable, with a 1% increase in tariffs leading to a 1.5 percentage point drop in export growth for these categories[17] - The indirect impact from tariffs on Canada and Mexico could further decrease China's exports by 0.06 percentage points due to reduced imports from these countries[19] Group 3: Future Tariff Developments - The current 10% tariff is likely just the beginning, with potential increases to 20%-30% in future tariffs, raising the average tariff rate on Chinese goods to 40%-50%[24][26] - Future tariff actions may involve phased increases based on ongoing negotiations, similar to the previous "301 investigations" approach[27] - Targeted measures may be implemented against Chinese goods, including stricter import scrutiny and tariffs on low-value cross-border e-commerce packages[28]