东海证券：晨会纪要-20250205

Group 1 - The report highlights the macroeconomic overview during the Spring Festival, noting significant events such as tariff increases by the Trump administration on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which may lead to increased market volatility [5][6][9] - The performance of major asset prices during the holiday period is summarized, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.26% and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones falling by 0.29% and 0.65% respectively [5][6][26] - The report indicates that the U.S. GDP growth for Q4 2024 was lower than expected at 2.3%, with consumer spending showing resilience despite a decline in private investment [9][12] Group 2 - Industrial enterprise profits in China showed a significant recovery in December 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, driven by improved revenue and profit margins [12][13] - The report notes that the manufacturing PMI for January was 49.1%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2%, suggesting slight expansion [9][12] - The report emphasizes the positive impact of policies such as "old-for-new" and "grabbing exports" on the midstream equipment sector, contributing to profit growth [12][14] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on various sectors, indicating that the tariffs may have a limited effect on Chinese exports due to the declining proportion of exports to the U.S. [6][9] - It mentions that the Chinese government has imposed additional tariffs on certain U.S. imports, including a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas, and a 10% tariff on crude oil and agricultural machinery [17][18] - The report also highlights the establishment of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund as part of Trump's economic strategy, which may influence market dynamics [18]