商贸零售行业：春节消费活力足，2025重点关注兴趣消费

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the retail industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][28]. Core Insights - The overall consumption market showed strong growth during the 2025 Spring Festival, with key retail and catering enterprises' sales increasing by 5.4% compared to the previous year [3]. - Structural highlights include a significant surge in service consumption, particularly in dining and entertainment, with online reservations for New Year's Eve dinners increasing by 305% year-on-year [3][4]. - The report emphasizes a shift in consumer behavior towards interest-based consumption, particularly among the Z generation, which is expected to drive growth in various service sectors [5][6]. Summary by Sections Consumption Trends - During the 2025 Spring Festival, key retail and catering sales rose by 5.4%, with catering enterprises seeing a 5.1% increase [3]. - The sales of home appliances and communication equipment from monitored retail enterprises grew by over 10% year-on-year [3]. - The report highlights a notable increase in service consumption, with dining-related searches and reservations experiencing substantial growth [3][4]. Policy Impact - The "trade-in" policy for consumer goods has continued to stimulate market activity, with significant numbers of applications for subsidies in automotive and electronic products [4]. - Future consumption trends are expected to focus on durable goods and rural markets, with recommendations for increased subsidies and improved commercial systems in these areas [4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a continued activation of market vitality through policy support, with a shift from product consumption to service consumption, emphasizing health, culture, and emotional experiences [5]. - Interest-based consumption is projected to be a key growth area, particularly in cosmetics and the trendy toy industry, benefiting brands that produce or operate IP [6]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on specific sectors such as cosmetics and medical beauty, which are expected to benefit from rising consumer interest and market expansion [6]. - The interest-based consumption sector is highlighted as a primary driver of growth, with brands like Pop Mart and Miniso positioned to capitalize on this trend [6].