新房二手房周报：受春节假期影响，1月百强房企销售金额同比微跌

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate market is expected to continue improving, with a focus on the "stop falling and stabilize" logic as the core narrative for the sector. It suggests that the fundamentals of the real estate market will undergo long-term and sustained recovery [3][44]. - The report highlights that the financing for the real estate "white list" has reached 5.6 trillion yuan, indicating a significant influx of capital into the sector [1]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total transaction area for new and second-hand homes in 15 tracked cities was 914,000 square meters this week, showing a week-on-week decrease of 73.3% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. For January, the overall transaction area decreased by 40.1% month-on-month but increased by 1.1% year-on-year [3]. - In January, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales amount of 227.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.2% and a month-on-month decline of 49.6% [3]. Key Company Announcements - China Merchants Shekou reported a share buyback of 9.84 million shares, totaling 103 million yuan [3]. - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for 2024 to be between -5.6 billion and -7 billion yuan [3]. - Vanke A anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for 2024 to be -45 billion yuan [3]. Sales Data - The report provides detailed sales data for new homes across different city tiers, indicating significant declines in transaction volumes. For instance, first-tier cities saw a week-on-week decrease of 77% and a year-on-year decrease of 1% [13][15]. - The second-hand housing market also experienced a substantial decline, with a nationwide decrease of 74% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 22% [19]. Regional Insights - In the Yangtze River Delta, Shanghai's new home sales decreased by 79% week-on-week, while Hangzhou's new home sales decreased by 12% [21]. - In the Pearl River Delta, Shenzhen's new home sales decreased by 60% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 126% [26][32]. - In the Bohai Rim region, Beijing's new home sales decreased by 91% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 55% [30]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Binjiang Group, while suggesting to pay attention to China Vanke [3][44].