Workflow
新股报告：古茗控股
中泰国际证券·2025-02-05 09:52

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" with a total score of 69 out of 100 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company, Gu Ming Holdings, is a rapidly growing beverage enterprise primarily selling fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee, holding an 18% market share in China's mass market ready-to-drink tea segment with a GMV of 19.2 billion RMB in 2023 [4][5]. - The ready-to-drink tea market in China is projected to grow from 211.5 billion RMB in 2023 to 519.3 billion RMB by 2028, with a CAGR of 19.2% from 2024 to 2028 [2]. - The company operates through a franchise model, with franchisees achieving an average profit of 376,000 RMB per store in 2023, significantly higher than the market average of less than 150,000 RMB [4][6]. Industry Outlook - The ready-to-drink tea market's GMV grew from 70.2 billion RMB in 2018 to 211.5 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 24.7% [2]. - The market is expected to see a slowdown in growth in 2024, but still anticipates an increase in GMV due to rising consumer spending [2]. - The growth in per capita consumption of ready-to-drink tea is expected to rise from 11 cups in 2023 to over 26 cups by 2028, with significant opportunities in lower-tier cities [2]. Company Operations - Gu Ming Holdings' revenue increased from 4.38 billion RMB in 2021 to 7.68 billion RMB in 2023, driven by an increase in franchise stores and GMV [6]. - The company maintained a stable gross margin of 30%-31% over the past three years, with net profit rising from 20 million RMB in 2021 to 1.06 billion RMB in 2023 [6]. - As of the end of 2023, the company had 9,001 franchise stores, with a significant portion located in lower-tier cities, which are expected to drive future growth [6]. Valuation Level - The company's IPO price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 16.9-19.3 times and a P/B ratio of 31.3-35.8 times, which is slightly higher than its peers [7][9]. - Comparatively, Gu Ming Holdings has a gross margin of 31.3% and a net margin of 14.1%, indicating strong operational efficiency [9].