投资策略:春节假期要闻回顾及A股市场展望
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-02-05 08:23

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares maintained a narrow range of fluctuations before the Spring Festival, with the Shanghai Composite Index oscillating between 3200 and 3300 points[8] - The overall performance of A-shares was influenced by U.S.-China relations, AI developments, and medium-to-long-term capital market entry plans[8] - The holiday period saw global asset volatility increase, with technology stocks facing significant pressure due to AI advancements and geopolitical tensions[13] Group 2: Key Events and Impacts - Trump's announcement of a 2.0 version of tariffs is expected to impact China's exports to the U.S., Mexico, and Canada by approximately 13.8%[45] - The tariff increase includes a 10% tariff on imports from China and a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, with expected direct impacts of around 14% on exports to the U.S.[45] - The holiday consumption data showed record highs in travel and movie box office, indicating strong consumer activity despite challenges in the overall consumption sector[27][28] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on technology sector trading opportunities, particularly in AI applications and hardware, as DeepSeek's low-cost and open-source model is expected to drive investment enthusiasm[43] - Monitor policy directions as the upcoming Two Sessions may present trading opportunities, especially in sectors like power generation and new production capabilities[5] - Maintain a bottom-line allocation in dividend assets, which are expected to continue providing certainty amid external uncertainties and potential inflationary pressures from tariff policies[5]