东兴证券：东兴晨报-20250205

Core Viewpoints - The investment outlook for the computer industry in 2025 focuses on the integration of trusted computing and AI applications, with structural opportunities in new productivity sectors [2][3] - The computer sector has shown significant recovery in the second half of the year, with valuations at reasonable levels and institutional holdings remaining low, indicating moderate risk [1][2] Industry Review - The computer sector's performance has been largely in line with the CSI 300 index, with a notable rebound since September due to improved market sentiment and confidence-boosting policies [1] - Historical analysis shows that the computer sector is influenced by a combination of policy, technology, valuation, and liquidity, leading to high volatility and rapid valuation increases [2] Industry Outlook - The future market performance will be assessed through three dimensions: fundamentals (policy and technology), cost-effectiveness (valuation and holding structure), and attractiveness (thematic catalysts and liquidity expectations) [2] - The trusted computing and AI sectors are expected to resonate positively across policy, technology, and demand, with new productivity areas like low-altitude economy, quantum information, and intelligent driving likely to see structural market movements [2][3] Investment Strategy - Key investment lines in the trusted computing sector include leading companies in various subfields, such as China Software, Taiji Co., and others that have built competitive advantages through experience and product iterations [3] - In the AI application sector, companies like iFLYTEK and Kunlun Wanwei are highlighted for their rapid growth and application of AI technologies, with the global AI industry projected to reach $623.3 billion in 2024, growing at 21.5% [7] - Other new productivity sectors, such as intelligent driving and quantum computing, are also identified as having significant growth potential, with specific companies recommended for investment [7] Market Trends - The 2025 Spring Festival saw strong consumer activity, with retail and catering sales increasing by 5.4% and 5.1% respectively compared to the previous year [17][18] - The trend towards interest-based consumption is expected to continue, with sectors like cosmetics and the "interest economy" showing promising growth opportunities [21][22]