古茗控股IPO点评报告

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "5.9" based on a scale of 10 [7]. Core Insights - Gu Ming Holdings is a leading chain enterprise in China's fresh tea beverage market, operating primarily through franchise stores with product prices ranging from 10 to 18 RMB. The revenue for 2022, 2023, and the first nine months of 2024 is projected to be 55.6 billion, 76.7 billion, and 64.4 billion RMB, respectively, with growth rates of 26.8%, 38%, and 15%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be 7.8 billion, 14.6 billion, and 11.5 billion RMB, with growth rates of 2.4%, 85%, and 10% [1]. Company Overview - Gu Ming Holdings operates a total of 9,778 stores as of September 2024, with 97% being franchise stores. The company has a strong presence in East China, particularly in Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Fujian provinces, focusing on high-density store networks to achieve economies of scale and market penetration [1]. Industry Status and Outlook - The fresh tea beverage market in China has grown from 702 billion RMB in 2018 to 2,115 billion RMB in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.7%. The market potential in lower-tier cities is significant, as per capita consumption in first-tier cities is 27 cups annually, compared to less than 10 cups in lower-tier cities. The chain store ratio is expected to increase from 56.1% in 2023 to 72.0% by 2028, with franchising being the primary model [2]. Strengths and Opportunities - The company has established a strong brand presence and high-density store layout in East and South China, particularly in lower-tier cities, enhancing brand influence. It possesses rich experience in franchise management and a strong record of franchisee profitability, along with efficient supply chain management that supports rapid product iteration and flexible store operations [3]. Investment Recommendations - The cornerstone investors include financial investors such as Tencent and Yuan Sheng Capital. The IPO price range is set at 8.68 to 9.94 HKD, with a post-issue market capitalization estimated at 202 to 232 billion HKD. The expected net profit for 2024 is around 1.4 billion RMB, leading to an IPO PE ratio of 15.5 to 17.7x, which is considered reasonable [5].