多元资产月报（2025年2月）：关税博弈初露端倪，内外市场波动增大

Macro Economic Background - The 2024 GDP growth target was successfully achieved, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, particularly strong in Q4 with a growth of 5.4% [19] - Industrial value-added growth in December was 6.2%, significantly up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with 34 out of 41 major industries showing growth [19] - Exports maintained high growth, with December export value increasing by 10.7% year-on-year, driven by preemptive exports ahead of the implementation of Trump's tariff policies [19] Domestic Economic Performance - Consumer demand remains weak, with December retail sales showing a slight recovery to 3.7% year-on-year, supported by policies like "trade-in" and early consumption for the Spring Festival [19] - Fixed asset investment growth continued to decline, down to 3.2% year-on-year, primarily due to the drag from real estate development investment [19] - Industrial enterprise profits rebounded significantly in December, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, leading to a cumulative year-on-year recovery to -3.3% [19] Policy Environment - In January 2025, various government departments emphasized the need to expand domestic demand and implement moderately loose monetary policies [26] - The central bank proposed to enhance the bond market's functionality and service capabilities for the real economy, while also maintaining stability in the foreign exchange market [26] - A joint plan was issued to encourage long-term funds to enter the market, focusing on commercial insurance funds, social security funds, and public funds [27] Market Outlook - The A-share market is entering a period of policy negotiation and layout ahead of the Two Sessions, with increased structural opportunities, particularly in the technology sector [8] - The bond market is expected to remain volatile, with short-term valuations having advantages but limited by funding conditions, while long-term supply-demand dynamics are relatively stable [9] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to experience increased volatility due to multiple factors, including domestic economic conditions and U.S.-China interest rate differentials [9]