平安证券：晨会纪要-20250206

Core Insights - The report indicates that the economic data for January 2024 shows that growth targets have been successfully achieved, with domestic stock, bond, and currency assets generally exhibiting a volatile trend [2][8][10] - The report highlights that the external market is influenced by interest rate expectations and Trump's tariff policies, leading to increased volatility in U.S. stocks, particularly in the technology sector due to the impact of Deepseek [2][9][10] - Looking ahead to February 2025, high-frequency and leading economic indicators suggest a seasonal decline in production, with a slowdown in the pace of economic recovery [10][11] Domestic Market Overview - The report notes that the domestic stock market has experienced fluctuations, with A-shares entering a period of policy negotiation and layout ahead of the Two Sessions, increasing structural opportunities [10][11] - The report mentions that the bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with short-term valuation advantages but constrained by liquidity conditions [10][11] - The report anticipates that the RMB exchange rate will experience short-term depreciation pressure, but this may ease, leading to a wide range of fluctuations [10][11] External Market Dynamics - The report discusses the resilience of the U.S. economy, with a focus on the potential impacts of Trump's tariff policies and statements, which may lead to increased volatility in U.S. stocks [11][12] - It highlights that the U.S. inflation rate may be influenced by rising energy prices and other factors, which could affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [11][12] - The report also notes that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, influenced by domestic policy and external factors [11][12] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report suggests increasing equity asset allocation based on the upward trend of credit factors and signs of fundamental recovery [3][13] - It recommends focusing on small-cap and growth styles, as the current market sentiment indicates a preference for these segments [3][13][14] - The report advises attention to quality companies benefiting from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and opportunities related to state-owned enterprise reforms and mergers [10][11]