休闲服务行业周报：2025年消费展望：政策将加速托举需求回暖

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the "Two New" policy and consumption vouchers have significantly contributed to stable consumption growth in 2024, with a total retail sales of social consumer goods reaching 48.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.48% [2][12] - The report emphasizes that the "Two New" policy has effectively stimulated consumption in sectors such as home appliances, electronics, and automobiles, leading to a notable increase in consumer spending [3][15] - The report forecasts that the consumption heat will continue to rise in 2025, driven by ongoing optimization of subsidy policies and a focus on boosting domestic demand [5][22] Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2024 - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2024 reached 48.79 trillion yuan, with an average growth rate of 5.35% over 2023-2024 [2][12] - Online retail sales amounted to 15.53 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2% year-on-year, while offline consumption increased by 4.83% [2] - The "Two New" policy and consumption vouchers were pivotal in stabilizing consumption, particularly during major shopping events [12][15] 2. Policy Impact on Consumption - The "Two New" policy has fostered a habitual consumption pattern among residents, particularly in the home appliance and electronics sectors, with significant year-on-year growth in these areas [3][17] - The issuance of consumption vouchers has stimulated long-term consumption in daily life sectors such as dining and entertainment [3][17] 3. Demand and Economic Potential - Despite the positive effects of the "Two New" policy, overall demand remains weak, indicating substantial potential for further demand release [4][20] - The report highlights that residents' wealth levels are crucial for determining consumption expenditure, with the need for income growth and financial asset price recovery being emphasized [4][20] 4. Outlook for 2025 - The central economic work conference has prioritized boosting consumption for 2025, with plans to increase the scale of the "Two New" policy and expand the categories eligible for subsidies [5][21] - The report anticipates that the consumption market will experience sustained growth, supported by improved employment conditions and rising household incomes [6][22]