国君电子|本地模型部署需求爆发,AIPC换机加速 ——系列六Deepseek对PC的影响

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AIPC (AI Personal Computer) market, indicating a strong growth trajectory and an upgrade of the overall PC industry towards mid-to-high-end products [1][3]. Core Insights - The demand for AIPC is expected to surge due to the increasing need for higher specifications in local model deployments, leading to a significant upgrade in the PC industry [1][3]. - AIPC hardware products have been available for some time, but limited pre-trained model capabilities and reliance on foreign APIs previously hindered user motivation to upgrade. Recent developments, such as the Deepseek open-source model, have reduced hardware adaptation costs and improved inference performance, driving the need for local deployments [2][3]. - The AIPC market is projected to see rapid growth, with shipments expected to reach 100 million units by 2025 (40% market share) and 205 million units by 2028 (70% market share), reflecting a CAGR of 44% from 2024 to 2028 [3]. - The average price for consumer-grade AI laptops is estimated between 5,500 to 6,500 yuan, while AI desktop computers average around 4,000 yuan, indicating a shift towards higher-end products as AIPC shipments accelerate [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AIPC Market Growth - AIPC shipments are anticipated to grow rapidly, driving the overall PC industry towards a mid-to-high-end upgrade [1][3]. - The demand for AIPC is fueled by the need for local model deployments, which require higher specifications in PC hardware [2][3]. Section 2: Terminal Manufacturers and Component Demand - Terminal manufacturers are evolving from traditional hardware producers to ecosystem organizers, necessitating higher standards for software and hardware delivery [4]. - The deployment of AIPC local models is increasing the demand for high-capacity, high-speed memory and advanced cooling systems, as well as lightweight materials like magnesium alloy and carbon fiber [4]. Section 3: Market Dynamics - The report highlights that Lenovo is expected to benefit significantly from the AIPC upgrade trend, with a projected 4.7% increase in shipments in 2024, reaching 61.8 million units [4]. - The overall PC shipment volume is projected to grow by 1% year-on-year in 2024, with a total of 262.7 million units expected [4].