25年两轮车行业前瞻专题：两轮车市场共识与分歧展望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Aima Technology, Yadea Holdings, and Ninebot Company, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the upcoming year [82]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the two-wheeler market is expected to see improved demand and optimized structure in 2025, driven by new policies and the "old-for-new" replacement program [5][82]. - Key investment catalysts include Q1 inventory replenishment, the peak season for the "old-for-new" program, and the trial sales of new standard vehicles in H2 [5][82]. - The report anticipates a 10-15% increase in demand due to the "old-for-new" policy, with potential sales reaching 540,000 to 720,000 units in 2025 [29][32]. Summary by Sections 2024: Can Expectations Be Met? - The report notes that the market consensus is that the "old-for-new" program will drive demand recovery [28]. - It predicts that the industry will see a significant increase in sales due to the new policies implemented in early 2025 [5][28]. 2025: How Will Market Divergence Evolve? - The report identifies three main areas of divergence: the pace of inventory replenishment, competition among leading brands, and the potential for profit margins to recover [50][69]. - It emphasizes that the concentration of market share among leading brands is likely to increase, with the top two brands expected to capture a larger share of the market [41][42]. Policy Impact - The new national standards and the "old-for-new" policy are expected to significantly benefit the operational aspects of the industry, eliminating previous policy disruptions [5][23]. - The report outlines that the new standards will lead to a marginal increase in demand, primarily driven by the "old-for-new" program [19][32]. Competitive Landscape - The report discusses the competitive dynamics among leading brands, noting that Aima is expected to benefit from a more certain growth trajectory, while Yadea is likely to see a recovery in its performance [5][82]. - It highlights the importance of product differentiation and pricing strategies in maintaining market share amid increasing competition [64][70]. Financial Projections - Aima Technology is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 22% in 2025, while Yadea Holdings is expected to see a recovery with a 28% increase in revenue [82]. - Ninebot Company is anticipated to continue its differentiated growth strategy, benefiting from expanded white list inclusion and increased subsidies [82].