房地产行业动态点评：六维跟踪楼市复苏月报（2025-1）

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [7]. Core Insights - The real estate market in January showed a decline in activity due to the traditional off-season and the timing of the Spring Festival, with a notable increase in the month-on-month decline of second-hand housing prices [1][6]. - There is an expectation for gradual recovery in market activity post-Spring Festival, with a focus on the performance of resilient cities in stabilizing prices [1][6]. Summary by Sections Market Activity - January saw a year-on-year decline in new and second-hand housing transaction areas, with new housing transaction area down by 13% and second-hand housing up by 3% [2]. - Leading indicators indicate a drop in market activity, with significant decreases in the second-hand housing viewing index and new housing site index [3]. Price Trends - The second-hand housing price saw a month-on-month decline of 0.6%, with a widening gap between listing prices and transaction prices [4]. - Among cities, first-tier cities showed relative resilience, with prices declining by only 0.1%, while second and third-tier cities experienced declines of 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively [4]. City Observations - Cities with leading indicators include Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Shanghai, while cities like Zhongshan and Changchun lag behind [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong resources and stable operations in core cities, as well as high-dividend property management companies that may benefit from market stabilization [6]. - Key recommended stocks include: - A-shares: Chengdu Investment Holdings, Urban Construction Development, Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, Jianfa Co., New Town Holdings - Hong Kong stocks: China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, Greentown China, Longfor Group, Jianfa International Group, Yuexiu Property [10].