2025年春节出行数据点评：错峰出行平滑客流，出入境高热度

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (First time) [4] Core Viewpoints - The 2025 Spring Festival travel data shows a significant increase in cross-regional mobility, with a total of 2.3 billion movements during the holiday, averaging 288 million per day, which is a 0.6% increase compared to 2024 and a 34% increase compared to 2019 [4] - The aviation passenger volume reached a historical high during the Spring Festival, with an average daily passenger flow of 2.28 million, a 1.4% increase year-on-year and a 26.8% increase compared to 2019 [4] - The international travel market is recovering, with outbound flights reaching 89.4% of 2019 levels during the Spring Festival, and a total of 14.36 million outbound trips recorded, marking a 6.3% year-on-year increase [4] Summary by Sections Section: Travel Data - The Ministry of Transport reported that the Spring Festival holiday saw a total of 2.3 billion cross-regional movements, with various travel modes showing different growth rates compared to 2024 and 2019 [4] - The new holiday policy allowed for extended vacation periods, leading to a smoother distribution of travel demand [4] Section: Aviation Performance - The average daily passenger flow for airlines during the Spring Festival was 2.28 million, with a notable increase in capacity utilization and a slight decrease in ticket prices [4] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class during the Spring Festival was 1,033 yuan, down 2.6% from the previous year [4] Section: International Travel - The recovery of international flights is evident, with Japan, Thailand, and South Korea being the top destinations [4] - The inbound tourism market showed a 10% increase in visitor numbers compared to 2024, driven by new visa policies and increased spending by foreign visitors [4] Section: Investment Analysis - The aviation industry is expected to experience a supply-demand reversal in 2025, with strong travel demand and ongoing recovery of international routes likely to improve airline performance [4]