东海证券：晨会纪要-20250206

Group 1 - The report highlights the macroeconomic overview during the Spring Festival, noting significant events such as tariff changes by the US and their impact on market volatility [5][6][9] - The performance of major asset prices during the holiday period is summarized, with US equity markets showing mixed results, while gold prices reached historical highs due to increased risk aversion [6][9] - The report indicates that the Chinese economy showed resilience in consumer spending during the Spring Festival, with a notable increase in domestic travel and tourism expenditures [10][11] Group 2 - The report discusses the recovery of industrial profits in December 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, indicating a positive trend in profit growth driven by policy effects and market demand [12][13] - It notes that the manufacturing PMI for January was 49.1, reflecting a slight contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2, indicating stability in the service sector [9][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of price factors in sustaining profit growth into 2025, with a focus on fiscal policy and its implementation pace [13][14] Group 3 - The cultural and tourism market during the Spring Festival saw 5.01 billion domestic trips, a 5.9% increase year-on-year, with total spending reaching 677 billion yuan, up 7.0% [17] - The report outlines the government's focus on high-quality development and the need for effective policy measures to address economic challenges and enhance domestic circulation [18][19] - The adjustment of the national logistics hub layout is discussed, with the aim of improving logistics efficiency and supporting regional economic development [19][21] Group 4 - The A-share market analysis indicates a mixed performance among major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.65% and the Shenzhen Component Index showing slight gains [23][24] - The IT services sector experienced significant growth, with a 6.17% increase, driven by strong capital inflows and positive market sentiment [25][26] - The report highlights the overall market data, including changes in financing balances and bond yields, reflecting the current economic environment [30]