金属行业2月月报：1月节假日影响生产，关注节后需求恢复情况

Investment Ratings - Steel industry: Neutral [1] - Non-ferrous metals: Positive [1] Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing weak performance due to the impact of holiday seasons on production and demand recovery, with expectations of continued pressure on steel prices [15][1] - For copper, uncertainties regarding tariffs and potential trade wars are pressuring prices, but tight supply and domestic demand expectations provide some support [27][1] - The aluminum market faces challenges from tariffs and a potential decline in prices due to sufficient supply of alumina [32][1] - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors, with a long-term positive outlook due to high U.S. debt and inflation risks [36][1] - The tin industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in the semiconductor sector and demand from AI and new energy developments [64][1] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - January PMI for the steel industry was 43.3%, indicating weak performance, with production and demand affected by cold weather and holidays [15][1] - December 2024 steel consumption was 10,999.28 million tons, down 0.01% month-on-month but up 8.45% year-on-year [16][1] - January 2025 steel production data is not yet available, but expectations indicate continued pressure on production and prices [15][1] Copper - December 2024 refined copper production was 124.20 million tons, up 9.62% month-on-month and 6.24% year-on-year [27][1] - LME copper price increased by 3.96% to $0.91 per ton during the reporting period [27][1] Aluminum - December 2024 alumina production was 750.80 million tons, down 0.65$0.26 per ton during the reporting period [32][1] Precious Metals - COMEX gold price rose by 3.93% to $2,743.10 per ounce, while SHFE gold price increased by 4.85% to 647.54 yuan per gram [36][1] Lithium and Other Metals - Domestic lithium carbonate production in December 2024 was 37,900 tons, down 5.94% year-on-year [38][1] - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to weak demand, but potential recovery in the digital market may provide support [43][1] - Nickel production in December 2024 was 31,200 tons, up 27.42% year-on-year [46][1] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth elements such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide increased by 4.27% to 415,000 yuan per ton [50][1] - Tungsten concentrate price rose by 1.40% to 145,000 yuan per ton [55][1]