食品饮料行业春节白酒渠道反馈：需求平稳，供给理性

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" [67] Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for liquor during the Spring Festival is stable, with a notable recovery in banquet bookings, despite a pessimistic outlook prior to the holiday [3][9] - There is a clear differentiation in performance among brands, with premium liquor performing better, reflecting a trend where consumption is shifting towards well-known brands [3][10] - The cautious stocking behavior of distributors is evident, with increased inventory levels compared to the previous year, indicating pressure on profitability [3][15] - Supply-side management is being emphasized by manufacturers to maintain channel health and stabilize prices, which is beneficial for long-term development [3][18] - Future demand is expected to improve with the implementation of macroeconomic policies, potentially boosting liquor consumption [3][63] Summary by Sections Overall Feedback - The Spring Festival sales are overall stable, with significant recovery in banquet bookings, although the consumption environment remains challenging [3][5][9] Brand and Price Band Performance - There is a clear trend of premium liquor outperforming others, with mid-to-high-end price bands showing the fastest growth [3][10][14] - The market is experiencing a "Matthew Effect," where consumer preference is increasingly concentrated on leading brands, while lesser-known brands struggle [3][10] Market Segmentation - Banquet bookings have rebounded significantly, and the general circulation of liquor remains stable, although business demand is still weak [3][9][56] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include high-end liquor with strong demand such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao; next-tier liquor like Shanxi Fenjiu; and real estate liquor brands like Yingjia Gongjiu and Gujing Gongjiu [3][63][64]