春节假期旅游观察，维持行业及公司展望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the online travel industry, specifically for Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel, with expected revenue growth rates of 19% and 20% for 2024 respectively [4] Core Insights - Domestic tourism revenue during the Spring Festival reached 677 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with total tourist numbers at 500 million, reflecting a 5.9% growth [2][3] - The report forecasts a 10% year-on-year growth in total domestic tourism revenue for 2025, estimating it to reach 6.6 trillion yuan [2][4] - Online travel platforms are expected to benefit from increased online penetration, various value-added services, and the continued recovery of outbound tourism [4] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism Performance - Spring Festival tourism revenue and visitor numbers met expectations, with revenue increasing by 7% and visitor numbers by 5.9% compared to the previous year [2] - Average spending per tourist was 1,351 yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a stable recovery in consumer spending [2] Travel Consumption Trends - Future tourism spending will not only focus on hotel ADR and airfare but also on diverse travel services like car rentals and unique attraction tickets [2] - The average airfare for economy class dropped by 17% year-on-year, yet overall tourism spending still saw growth, highlighting the demand for varied travel experiences [2] Observations on Travel Patterns - The report noted an increase in multi-segment trips during the Spring Festival, with over 20% of return orders occurring in the five days post-holiday [3] - High-end hotels in county areas are gaining popularity, surpassing chain hotels for the first time [3] - Outbound travel orders have doubled, particularly from lower-tier markets, indicating significant potential for growth in this segment [3] OTA Platform Performance - Ctrip is projected to achieve revenue growth of 19% in 2024 and 16% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 34.2% and 35.5% respectively [4] - Tongcheng Travel is expected to see a 20% increase in core OTA business revenue in 2024, with an overall adjusted net profit margin of 16.0% in 2024 [4] - The report emphasizes that the online travel sector's revenue potential is driven by increased online penetration, recovery in hotel and airfare prices, and the growth of outbound tourism [4]