宏观ABC系列之六：负债端视角看我国利率体系

Interest Rate System - China's interest rate system consists of two main chains: deposit and loan interest rates, and financial market interest rates, with banks acting as intermediaries[6] - The central bank's interest rate corridor includes an excess reserve rate of 0.35%, a 7-day reverse repo rate of 1.5%, and a standing lending facility (SLF) rate of 2.5%[6] Deposit and Loan Rates - Deposit rates have been continuously lowered, significantly impacting the cost of liabilities for financial institutions, with the proportion of deposits in funding sources exceeding 86% by the end of 2024[6] - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has been reduced multiple times, with a cumulative decrease of 35 basis points for the 1-year LPR and 60 basis points for the 5-year LPR in 2024[13] Market Trends - The bond market has experienced a strong bull run, with 10-year and 1-year government bond yields decreasing by 88 and 100 basis points respectively, reaching levels of 1.68% and 1.06% by the end of 2024[12] - The overall liquidity environment in 2024 has been characterized by ample and stable conditions, leading to a decrease in funding rates and a reduction in volatility[6] Asset Management Implications - The decline in interest rates necessitates asset management institutions to adopt proactive liability management strategies to attract low-cost liabilities and stabilize their client base[8] - The shift towards longer-duration assets is expected as short-duration assets lose their appeal, increasing the operational challenges for institutions primarily relying on short-term liabilities[8] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected changes in domestic monetary policy, regulatory shifts in the asset management industry, and the possibility of a "redemption tide" in wealth management products[8]