基础化工行业深度报告：乙二醇：跬步已积，行将致远

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The downstream polyester industry chain is thriving, leading to a gradual increase in ethylene glycol demand. Since 2020, the production capacity of downstream products such as polyester staple fiber, polyester filament, and PET bottle chips has been continuously expanding, driving the demand for ethylene glycol [5][12][13] - Ethylene glycol production capacity expansion is nearing its end, with limited increases in domestic and foreign supply. The growth of ethylene glycol capacity has slowed since 2022, with significant reductions in new capacity plans due to previous overcapacity and negative profit margins [6][62] - The polyester industry chain is expected to continue expanding, while the expansion of ethylene glycol capacity will significantly slow down, leading to an upward shift in ethylene glycol prices [6][12] Summary by Sections Demand Side: Downstream Polyester Industry Chain Thriving - Ethylene glycol is a major raw material for the polyester industry chain, with 50% used for polyester filament, 20% for PET bottle chips, and 11% for polyester staple fiber in 2024 [12] - The production capacity of polyester filament is projected to increase by 215,000 tons in 2025 and 555,000 tons in 2026, which could drive an additional demand for ethylene glycol of 72,030 tons and 185,930 tons respectively [5][28] - The polyester staple fiber sector is also expected to see a demand increase, with planned new capacity of 88,000 tons in 2025 and 60,000 tons in 2026, potentially adding 49,580 tons to ethylene glycol demand [5][39] Limited New Capacity in 2025 - Ethylene glycol production capacity is projected to grow only slightly, with 2,762,200 tons in 2023 and 2,792,200 tons in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of only 7.32% and 1.06% respectively [6][62] - The net import volume of ethylene glycol has decreased from 10,480,000 tons in 2020 to 6,390,000 tons in 2024, indicating a tightening supply situation [6][62] Polyester Capacity Continues to Expand - The polyester industry is expected to continue its expansion, which will support ethylene glycol demand. The overall economic recovery is anticipated to facilitate the absorption of new polyester capacity [5][6] - The theoretical gross profit of PET bottle chips has been negative, leading to a cautious approach towards new capacity expansion despite planned increases of 360,000 tons in 2025 [51][56]