春节白酒渠道反馈：需求平稳，供给理性

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" [67] Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for liquor during the Spring Festival is stable, with a notable recovery in banquet bookings, despite a pessimistic outlook prior to the holiday [3][9] - There is a clear differentiation in performance among brands, with premium liquor performing better, reflecting a "Matthew Effect" where consumer preference is shifting towards leading brands [10][14] - Supply-side management is emphasized, with manufacturers focusing on maintaining channel health and profitability for distributors through inventory control and flexible payment terms [18][19] Summary by Sections Overall Feedback - The Spring Festival liquor sales are stable, with banquet bookings showing significant recovery. The overall market sentiment was pessimistic due to a weak consumption environment leading up to the holiday [3][9] - The consumer demand for liquor remains rigid, particularly for social gatherings, while business demand is still weak [9] Brand and Price Band Performance - The performance of liquor brands shows a clear divide, with high-end and mid-range products experiencing the most growth. The low-end segment is under pressure, particularly in business contexts [10][14] - The high-end liquor market remains stable, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye maintaining their positions, while mid-range products are benefiting from increased consumer traffic during the holiday [14][52] Supply Management - Manufacturers are adopting a cautious approach to supply, focusing on healthy channel management and profitability for distributors. This includes flexible payment terms and inventory control measures [18][19] - The overall strategy is to stabilize the value chain and ensure long-term growth prospects in the face of current demand pressures [19][63] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for investment: high-end liquor with strong demand (Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao), mid-range liquor with national expansion (Shanxi Fenjiu), and real estate liquor brands (Yingjia Gongjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, Laobai Ganjiu) [63][64]