2025年物流行业投资策略：经济修复，物流先行

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the logistics industry, highlighting resilience in demand and potential for growth in various segments [2]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector is expected to continue its resilient growth in 2025, driven by trends such as consumption downgrade, increased return rates, and the small parcel trend [6][9]. - The freight forwarding market is projected to maintain steady demand, with an optimistic outlook for profitability recovery [4][59]. - Cross-border logistics are benefiting from the growth of cross-border e-commerce, although attention is needed regarding changes in U.S. tariff policies [5][6]. - Chemical logistics are currently facing weak demand, with expectations for a recovery in the future [6]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is anticipated to grow due to resilient demand, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements among direct delivery companies [3][6]. - Key companies to watch include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and SF Express, each showing unique strengths and growth potential [6][18]. Freight Forwarding - The freight forwarding market is expected to see steady growth, with the market share of full-network freight forwarding projected to reach 10% by 2027, corresponding to a scale of 1,797 billion [6][58]. - Companies like Debang Logistics and Aneng Logistics are highlighted for their growth potential and profitability improvements [6][62]. Cross-Border Logistics - The growth of cross-border e-commerce is driving demand for cross-border logistics, with a focus on monitoring U.S. tariff policy changes [5][6]. Chemical Logistics - The chemical logistics sector is currently experiencing weak demand, with expectations for a recovery in the future as the market stabilizes [6][70]. Overall Industry Trends - The logistics industry is characterized by a high level of competition, with a focus on finding differentiated investment opportunities while maintaining a long-term view on cash flow returns [33][36].