食品饮料行业跟踪报告：白酒青竹任风雪，食品枯木恰逢春

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry has faced a prolonged adjustment period due to multiple factors such as demand pressure and supply expansion, but leading companies with strong brand power and quality business models can still achieve performance through economic cycles [2][3] - The key divergence points for the liquor industry in 2025 include the recovery pace across different price segments, with the 100-300 price range expected to be a highlight while higher-end segments remain under pressure [3][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of channel replenishment willingness and the impact of various indicators on the quality of quarterly reports for liquor companies [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is expected to experience a "deceleration adjustment year" in 2025, with a focus on maintaining stability rather than aggressive growth [18] - Different price segments are recovering at different paces, with the 100-300 price range showing quicker recovery due to changing consumption scenarios [19][20] - Key indicators for tracking the liquor industry include inventory reduction, channel financing costs, and the old liquor price index, which reflects consumer and investor confidence [5][6] Section 2: Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is expected to recover faster than the liquor sector, with structural highlights emerging from the restaurant recovery, channel evolution, and cost reductions [6][7] - The report identifies three main lines for consumer goods: benefits from restaurant recovery, companies benefiting from channel structural changes, and improvements in profitability due to cost reductions [6][7] - Specific recommendations include focusing on leading brands in the restaurant supply chain, such as Anjuke Foods and Haitian Flavoring, and monitoring growth opportunities in snacks and beverages [8] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - For liquor, the focus is on selecting leading brands and high-end products, with long-term investments in companies with high dividends [8] - For consumer goods, the report suggests looking at companies benefiting from cyclical recovery in restaurants, stable demand in snacks and beverages, and potential profitability improvements in the dairy sector [8]