特斯拉（TSLA）：Q4业绩低预期，AI叙事或触估值跃迁

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of $396.67 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance was below expectations, with revenue of $25.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 2%, and a GAAP net profit of $2.32 billion, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 71% [1][12]. - The decline in automotive margins was attributed to lower vehicle prices and increased AI-related R&D expenses, despite a slight decrease in unit costs due to lower raw material prices [2][12]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profits in 2025, driven by new model launches and advancements in AI technology, particularly in Robotaxi and FSD [3][16]. Summary by Sections Q4 Performance Overview - Q4 revenue was $25.7 billion, below the market expectation of $27.1 billion, with a GAAP net profit of $2.32 billion, which was above the expected $2.24 billion [1][12]. - The overall gross margin was 16.3%, down 1.4 percentage points year-over-year and 3.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2][12]. - Automotive deliveries reached 496,000 units, a year-over-year increase of 2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7% [2][12]. Technology Narrative and Future Outlook - The company provided slightly better-than-expected guidance on technology advancements, with a focus on the rollout of unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi in 2025 [3][16]. - The AI capabilities are expected to trigger a valuation paradigm shift, moving beyond traditional SaaS frameworks [4][24]. - The company anticipates a 20-30% growth in automotive sales in 2025, with significant advancements in AI applications [3][16]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The SOTP valuation method estimates a 2030 profit of $9.5 billion from FSD, $12 billion from Robotaxi, and $11.5 billion from Optimus, with a total market value projected at $1.28 trillion [5][6]. - The company expects to achieve a gross margin of 14.7% in 2025, with a gradual recovery in profitability anticipated as new models are launched [19][22]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is $124.1 billion, with a GAAP net profit of $9.7 billion [22][23].