特朗普政策对新能源影响分析

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the impact of Trump's policies on the renewable energy sector, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and IRA subsidies, and the potential effects on downstream demand for solar, lithium batteries, and energy storage [3][4] Summary by Sections Solar Energy - The impact of the tariff increase is limited, with the tariff rate on imported polysilicon, wafers, batteries, and modules rising from 50% to 60%. Major companies have already established production capacities in the Middle East and the U.S. to mitigate tariff risks [3] - The suspension of IRA subsidy approvals may suppress short-term demand and supply, as seen with Indian company Premier Energies halting its U.S. factory plans. However, overturning the IRA is considered difficult due to the need for a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress [3] Lithium Batteries - The additional 10% tariff on lithium battery exports may impact China's exports, with existing tariffs on electric vehicles and energy storage batteries already at high levels. The overall impact on domestic lithium battery companies is expected to be limited, as they can reduce exposure through technology licensing [4] - If IRA subsidies are canceled, the U.S. electric vehicle market may shrink, affecting demand for lithium batteries [4] Energy Storage - Anticipation of tariffs has led to a rush in energy storage installations, with a recorded capacity of 60.6 GW by December 2024, a 45.3% increase from September 2024. The 10% tariff may affect company profits, but the rush is expected to continue until the tariff increase in 2026 [4] - If the IRA is fully canceled, the IRR for large storage projects could drop significantly from 23.88% to 15.45%, while the impact on residential storage is expected to be smaller. Ongoing monitoring of policy changes is necessary [4]