2025年投资策略：寻找“偏振”

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes the need to focus on industry trends and supply chain changes for 2025, particularly in sectors like electrolytic aluminum, new metal materials, gold, and electrolytic copper[4] - Gold prices are projected to rise to around $3,000 per ounce, driven by a structural premium and a potential decline in real interest rates[4] - Electrolytic copper production is expected to reach 26.91 million tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.4%[4] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The non-ferrous sector exhibited a "V" shaped recovery in 2024, with significant price fluctuations observed in various metals[10] - Gold prices increased by 28.8% in 2024, while battery-grade lithium prices fell by 24.2%[12] - The overall non-ferrous metal sector rose by 5.7% in 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 10.3 percentage points[14] Group 3: Economic Risks and Challenges - Risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, changes in domestic liquidity policies, and potential underperformance in the new energy vehicle sector[4] - The report highlights a significant decline in new construction starts in the real estate sector, with a projected year-on-year decrease of 15% in 2025[26] - Uncertainties in overseas policies, particularly from the U.S., could introduce additional market volatility[30]