特朗普关税的七大估算

Group 1: Impact on Inflation - Trump's tariff policy is estimated to increase short-term inflation in the U.S. by approximately 0.3-0.8 percentage points, with a median of about 0.6 percentage points[3] - In an extreme scenario where the tariff cost is fully borne by Chinese exporters, a 10% additional tariff would reduce China's PPI by about 0.1-0.2 percentage points[4] Group 2: Economic Impact on China - The drag on China's exports from tariffs is estimated to be around 0.5-1.4 percentage points, with a higher probability of falling in the upper range due to indirect export effects[4] - The overall impact on China's GDP from tariffs is estimated to be between 0.1-0.3 percentage points[4] Group 3: Monetary Policy Implications - China's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative in 2025, but the timing of actions will depend on domestic and international macroeconomic conditions[5] - The central bank's approach to stabilizing the exchange rate will be crucial, especially during periods of significant pressure[5] Group 4: Currency Exchange Rate Effects - The fastest phase of RMB depreciation due to tariff shocks may have already passed, with future risks tied to potential escalations in tariffs by Trump[6] - Historical data suggests that the most rapid depreciation often occurs between the announcement of tariffs and their actual implementation[6] Group 5: Structural Impact on Exports - Following a 10% tariff increase, the proportion of Chinese export goods with relative price advantages is expected to drop from 74.9% to 41.3%[7] - Categories likely to retain price advantages include instruments, essential oils, and certain chemical products, while toys and miscellaneous goods may face significant challenges[7] Group 6: Future Considerations - The effective date for additional tariffs was initially set for February 4, but Trump has announced a one-month suspension for tariffs on Canada and Mexico[8] - The uncertainty surrounding potential exemptions for specific goods remains, as no exemption procedures have been announced since the latest tariff orders[8] Group 7: International Perspectives - Major financial institutions like BlackRock and HSBC view U.S. equities as under pressure in the short term but maintain a generally optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy[11] - The impact of tariffs is expected to strengthen the dollar in the short term, although long-term risks may arise due to economic drag from the tariffs[11]