2024年第三季度北京零售物业市场速递

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Beijing retail market is experiencing significant changes with the opening of new shopping centers, contributing to a total retail space of 1.545 million square meters as of Q3 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.8% in stock [2][3] - The average rent for prime retail properties in core business districts is ¥2,180 per square meter per month, reflecting ongoing demand despite economic pressures [2][10] - The market is witnessing a shift towards high-end fashion and sports brands, with notable new store openings in key areas such as the Central Business District and Sanlitun [4][11] Market Overview - In Q3 2024, the Beijing retail market welcomed the opening of three major shopping centers, adding 236,000 square meters of quality retail space [3] - The total retail space in Beijing is projected to exceed 1.2 million square meters for the year, the highest in nearly a decade, driven by the development of international consumption centers [5] - Upgrading and renovation of older commercial projects are underway, with several key locations initiating transformation plans to enhance consumer experience [3][5] Market Key Indicators - The GDP growth rate for 2024 is forecasted at 5.4%, while the year-on-year change in social consumption is projected to decline by 0.5% [2] - The average vacancy rate across the Beijing retail market stands at 10.8%, with specific districts showing varying rates, such as 5.32% in the Central Business District [10] Rental and Vacancy Rates - Average rental prices in key districts range from ¥500 to ¥2,500 per square meter per month, with the highest rents observed in the Central Business District and Sanlitun [10][11] - The vacancy rate in the overall market is 10.8%, with specific areas like the Central Business District showing a low rate of 5.32% [10] Major Brand Openings - Notable new store openings include Titleist's first store in North China at Guomao Mall and Montane's new locations in SKP-S and Beijing Kerry Center [11] - The report highlights a trend of high-end brands entering the market, with luxury brands like PRADA and Dior increasing their presence in Wangfujing [4][11] Future Supply - The report indicates that at least three additional large-scale retail projects are expected to open in Q4 2024, potentially increasing the total supply for the year to over 1.2 million square meters [5] - Future supply projections include significant developments in non-core areas, contributing to the overall growth of the retail market [10]