2026大中华区 房地产市场展望 大中华区研究部 2025年12月 戴德梁行丨2026年大中华区房地产市场展望 0 目录 P2 摘要 P3 介绍 P4 宏观趋势 P5 热点话题和另类资产 P6 写字楼市场 P7 零售物业市场 P8 工业物流市场 P9 大宗交易市场 P10 城市市场 P24 要点总结 1 摘要 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 宏观趋势 2026年仍将是经济结构转型的调整之年，扩大内需、提振消费 将成为拉动来年经济增长的主要动力。 热点话题和另类资产 由人工智能驱动的数据中心将持续受到投资者关注 。市场剧烈 竞争环境下，资产管理在提升资产价值中愈发展现其重要性。 写字楼 新质生产力的发展将带动 TMT行业需求在 2026年显著增长 ， 配套设施已成为业主的核心差异化优势。 零售物业 中国零售品牌在竞争中强势崛起 ，并从"规模扩张"转向"价 值创造"。消费市场正在从满足物质需求转化为提供体验感和 情感共鸣。 工业物流 2026年，物流与制造设施整合将持续强化大中华区供应链韧性 及竞争力。全球产业链的重塑为工厂空间搬迁创造投资机遇。 大宗交易 公募REITs范围进一步扩大至写字楼及酒店将推动投资 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the industry, indicating growth potential and favorable market conditions [1]. Core Insights - The industry is projected to experience significant growth, with a forecasted revenue of 18,322.3 billion in 2025, up from 15,081.0 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 14.8% [3][10]. - Key growth drivers include technological advancements and increasing consumer demand, particularly in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, which is expected to grow by 29% [24][28]. - The report highlights a trend of increasing average rents in prime shopping centers, with a notable increase of 10.4% in 2025 [28]. Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast - The industry is expected to generate revenues of 18,322.3 billion in 2025, with a steady growth trajectory observed from previous years [3][10]. - The revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are projected at 6.1% for 2025, indicating a robust market outlook [5]. Sector Performance - The TMT sector is highlighted as a key performer, with a projected growth rate of 29% [24]. - The average rental rates in prime locations are anticipated to rise, reflecting increased demand and market confidence [28]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in consumer spending and investment in technology, which are driving the overall growth of the industry [28]. - The average rent in prime shopping centers is expected to increase by 10.4% in 2025, indicating a strong recovery and demand in the retail sector [28].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the transformation of the real estate industry from a development-driven model to an asset management-focused approach, highlighting the need for value preservation and enhancement in a changing market environment [4][10][26] - It identifies significant shifts in supply and demand dynamics within the real estate market, indicating a transition from rapid urbanization and expansion to a focus on optimizing existing assets and improving quality [11][14][23] - The report outlines the importance of adopting a comprehensive asset management strategy that spans the entire lifecycle of real estate assets, from acquisition to operation and eventual exit [39][41][67] Market Dynamics - The real estate market in China has experienced profound changes, with a notable decline in new housing sales and development investments since 2022, leading to an oversupply situation [10][11][14] - Major cities have seen a significant increase in the stock of Grade A office buildings, with total stock growing by 85.9% from 2016 to 2024, resulting in rising vacancy rates and downward pressure on rental prices [17][18] - The retail property market has also expanded, with high-quality shopping center stock increasing by 158.3% from 2016 to 2024, intensifying competition among commercial properties [21][22] Demand Evolution - The report highlights a shift in consumer preferences, with an increasing focus on quality and experience in housing and commercial spaces, driven by demographic changes and economic conditions [23][24] - The demand for rental housing is expanding, alongside a growing emphasis on sustainable and smart living environments, reflecting changing societal values [24][26] Asset Management Strategies - The report advocates for a strategic shift towards asset management that prioritizes long-term value creation through operational enhancements and financial optimization [32][34] - It emphasizes the necessity of a structured approach to managing existing assets, including categorizing and evaluating properties to maximize their operational efficiency and value [72][78] - The importance of dynamic adjustments in management strategies to respond to market fluctuations and tenant needs is underscored, ensuring that assets remain competitive and profitable [81] Value Tracking and Exit Strategies - Continuous tracking of asset values and market feedback is essential for understanding the factors influencing property valuations [51][52] - The report outlines various exit strategies, including asset securitization and equity transfers, as critical for realizing the value of real estate investments [59][60][64] - It stresses the significance of identifying optimal exit timing and methods to maximize asset value realization [59][60]

Group 1: Market Key Indicators - As of the end of Q3 2025, the stock of Grade A office buildings in Shenzhen reached 8.879 million square meters, with a vacancy rate of 29.0% and an average rent of RMB 153.4 per square meter per month [2][3][9] - In 2025, Shenzhen's GDP is expected to grow by 5.1%, the tertiary industry by 6.1%, CPI by 0.1%, and real estate development investment to decline by 15.1% [2] Group 2: Supply - Side Analysis - New supply in Q3 2025 was concentrated in the Qianhai area, which promoted the business atmosphere but also intensified the imbalance between supply and demand, raising the vacancy rate by 1.2 percentage points [3] - The average rent dropped by 4.2% quarter - on - quarter and 11.2% year - on - year, and the net absorption reached 92,000 square meters, a quarterly high since 2024 [3] - Owners are exploring diversified ways to attract customers, such as transforming the cooperation model with office building operators from a traditional rental relationship to a partnership [3] Group 3: Demand - Side Analysis - In the first three quarters, leasing demand was mainly concentrated in TMT, finance, professional services, and retail trade. In Q3, some niche technology companies entered the market [4] - Professional services and finance sectors saw a recovery in leasing demand in Q3, and companies in hotel, circular economy, new consumption, and logistics sectors also had large - area leasing transactions [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The large amount of upcoming supply will increase the pressure on the Grade A office building market, which may drive more innovative exploration in office building operation [5] Group 5: Regional Market Data - In different regions of Shenzhen, Luohu has a vacancy rate of 36.5%, Futian 20.7%, Nanshan 28.7%, Qianhai 42.4%, and Bao'an 26.0% as of 2025 [9] - The average rent in different regions ranges from RMB 124.04 in Qianhai to RMB 169.14 in Futian [9] Group 6: Transaction and Construction Information - In Q3 2025, major leasing transactions included Point Cat Technology leasing 9,800 square meters in China State - owned Capital Venture Capital Building in Qianhai [10] - Major ongoing construction projects include China Merchants Bank Global Headquarters Building in Shenzhen Bay Super Headquarters Base, expected to be delivered in 2026 [11]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the Asian REITs market in 2024 Core Insights - The 2024 Asian REITs market has seen significant developments, particularly in the mainland China infrastructure public REITs sector, which has entered a phase of normalized issuance, surpassing Hong Kong in market capitalization for the first time [3][5] - The total market capitalization of active REITs in Asia is $235.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.5% as of December 31, 2024 [4][12] - Emerging markets such as mainland China, Thailand, and India are showing robust growth, while traditional markets like Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong are experiencing a contraction in market value [12][22] Summary by Sections Overview of the Asian REITs Market - As of December 31, 2024, there are 263 active REITs in Asia, with a total market capitalization of $235.8 billion, down 6.5% from the previous year [4][8] - The mainland China REITs market has grown significantly, now ranking among the top three markets in Asia, alongside Japan and Singapore [8][22] Mainland China Infrastructure Public REITs Market - The mainland China infrastructure public REITs market has achieved historic highs in issuance speed and scale, with 64 products listed and a total market capitalization of 186 billion yuan [5] - The report emphasizes the diversification of underlying assets, including consumer infrastructure and logistics, as a key trend in the market [5] Overseas Hotel REITs Case Analysis - The report highlights successful cases from mature markets, particularly in hotel REITs, and discusses their relevance to the development of China's public REITs market [3] ESG Practices in the REITs Market - ESG considerations are identified as crucial for the long-term health of the REITs market, with a need for further development in ESG certification and rating practices in China [5]

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating of 17.16% for the industry in 2024, indicating a positive outlook for growth [2][7]. Core Insights - The industry is projected to reach a market size of ¥13,679.92 billion by 2025, with a significant growth rate of 17.16% [7]. - The GDP growth rate is expected to be 5.1% in 2024, with a slight increase in CPI by 0.1% [2]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, which is expected to contribute significantly to the overall growth [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Market Size and Growth**: The industry is anticipated to grow to ¥13,679.92 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.16% from 2024 [7]. - **Sector Performance**: The TMT sector shows a robust growth trajectory, with specific segments projected to grow at rates exceeding 20% [3][7]. - **Economic Indicators**: The report notes a GDP growth of 5.1% and a CPI increase of 0.1% for 2024, suggesting a stable economic environment for the industry [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Beijing retail market is experiencing a transformation with the introduction of new projects and the renovation of existing ones, driven by changing consumer habits and demands [3][5] - The market is expected to see over 700,000 square meters of quality retail space launched in 2025, primarily from large-scale new projects and urban renewal initiatives [5] - The introduction of new brands, particularly first stores, is revitalizing consumer engagement in Beijing, with 960 first stores expected in 2024 and 800 in 2025 [4] Market Overview - In Q1 2025, three new projects opened in Beijing, adding 356,000 square meters of quality retail space, bringing the total shopping center stock to 1.666 million square meters [3] - Urban renewal projects are becoming the main source of quality shopping center supply, with significant upgrades in both space structure and brand offerings [3] - The trend of upgrading older retail projects is ongoing, with operators taking over and revitalizing these spaces [3] Brand Developments - High-end dining and cultural entertainment brands are particularly active, with notable first stores opening in Beijing, such as Armani Coffee and POOPOSUPER [4] - Independent shops in traditional hutongs are gaining popularity among brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [4] Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued support for traditional brands and cultural enterprises, with policies being introduced to promote physical bookstores [5] - Future projects are expected to increasingly incorporate cultural elements, creating distinctive commercial spaces [5] Key Market Indicators - The average rent for prime retail space in Beijing is projected at ¥2,130 per square meter per month, with a vacancy rate of 10.6% [11] - The report provides detailed statistics on various commercial districts, highlighting their stock, vacancy rates, and rental price ranges [11] Major Upcoming Projects - Several significant projects are set to open in 2025, including Beijing Shangde Yintai City and Wangfujing WellTown, contributing to the retail landscape [13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as a key strategy for economic growth in the face of external uncertainties [4][7] - The report outlines economic development targets for 2025, including a GDP growth rate of around 5%, an urban unemployment rate of approximately 5.5%, and a consumer price index (CPI) increase of about 2% [5][6] - The government plans to issue 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the replacement of consumer goods, indicating a strong push towards stimulating consumer spending [11] - The report highlights the need for continued support for the real estate market to stabilize expectations and release wealth effects, with a focus on local government initiatives to acquire and repurpose existing properties [23][24] Summary by Sections Economic Development Goals - The 2025 targets include a GDP growth rate of around 5%, urban unemployment at 5.5%, and a CPI increase of about 2% [5][6] - The fiscal deficit is projected at 4% of GDP, with a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan [5] Consumption and Investment - The government prioritizes consumption as a means to drive economic growth, with measures introduced to stimulate domestic demand [7][12] - The retail market is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at enhancing consumer spending, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and electronics [11][12] Real Estate Market - The report emphasizes the need for policies to stabilize the real estate market, including the acquisition of existing properties and the promotion of urban renewal projects [23][24] - Local governments are expected to play a crucial role in revitalizing the real estate sector through special bonds and land acquisition initiatives [24][25] Technological Innovation and New Industries - The report outlines a commitment to fostering technological innovation and the development of modern service industries, with a focus on emerging sectors such as low-altitude economy and biomanufacturing [17][18] - The growth of the low-altitude economy is projected to reach 850 billion yuan by 2025, with an annual growth rate exceeding 30% [17] Foreign Investment - The government aims to encourage foreign investment in sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and education, reflecting a broader strategy to enhance openness and collaboration with international markets [31] Environmental Sustainability - The report highlights the importance of transitioning to a green economy, with a focus on reducing carbon emissions and promoting sustainable development practices [32]

Strategic Background - Urban development is a key engine for China's economic and social progress, transitioning from large-scale construction to quality improvement and structural adjustment[10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and 2035 vision emphasize promoting high-quality urban development, shifting focus from quantity to quality[10] Necessity of High-Quality Development - Urbanization has led to increased economic growth but also issues like resource waste and environmental pollution, necessitating a shift to high-quality urban development[11] - High-quality urban development aims to optimize resource allocation and meet rising public demands for livable environments and quality public services[11] Main Directions for High-Quality Development - **Livable Cities**: Focus on enhancing living quality through balanced public service distribution and improved infrastructure[13] - **Innovative Cities**: Emphasize creating sustainable ecosystems by attracting high-quality talent and optimizing innovation environments[15] - **Resilient Cities**: Enhance emergency management and risk resilience, especially in response to crises like pandemics[16] - **Smart Cities**: Leverage digital management and smart facilities to improve governance efficiency[17] - **Green Cities**: Promote low-carbon development to achieve carbon neutrality goals[18] - **Cultural Cities**: Protect cultural heritage while innovatively utilizing cultural resources[19] Challenges and Opportunities - Challenges include resource integration difficulties, lack of multi-stakeholder collaboration, and insufficient innovation capabilities in many cities[21] - Opportunities arise from improved policy environments and technological advancements, particularly in AI and IoT, which can enhance urban management and service delivery[22] Policy Background - The transition from incremental development to stock renovation is highlighted, with a focus on updating aging infrastructure to meet public needs[27] - A series of national policies since 2014 have emphasized the importance of urban renewal, culminating in its inclusion as a major project in the "14th Five-Year Plan"[27] Urban Renewal Models - Urban renewal strategies are evolving from large-scale demolitions to more sustainable, incremental updates, focusing on balancing investment and operational efficiency[33] - Three main models have emerged: government-led, market-led, and multi-stakeholder cooperation, with a trend towards more collaborative approaches[33] Chengzhongcun (Urban Village) Renovation - Urban village renovation is crucial for improving living conditions and requires balancing public and economic interests[53] - Future projects will likely involve state-owned enterprises leading the way, with a focus on attracting social capital to address funding challenges[57]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The macroeconomic overview of Xi'an shows a GDP of 868.6 billion yuan, with a retail sales total of 363.8 billion yuan, indicating a significant economic activity in the region [2][3][5] - The population of Xi'an at the end of 2023 is reported to be 13.1 million, which supports the consumer market potential [6][7] - The tertiary industry growth rate in Xi'an is 3.3%, which is lower compared to other cities like Qingdao (4.5%) and Tianjin (5.4%) [9] - Real estate development investment growth in Xi'an is at 9.3%, contrasting sharply with negative growth rates in other cities such as Qingdao (-12.2%) and Dalian (-20.6%) [13] Economic Indicators - Xi'an's per capita disposable income for urban residents is 40,967 yuan, which is lower than that of Qingdao (51,337 yuan) and Tianjin (46,078 yuan) [11] - The retail market in Xi'an is characterized by a total stock of 7,634,683 square meters, with an average rent of 237.01 yuan per square meter per month and a vacancy rate of 15.9% [39] - The office market in Xi'an has a total stock of 1,924,453 square meters, with a net absorption of 41,360 square meters and a vacancy rate of 21.27% [23] Market Trends - The report indicates a trend of increasing supply in the retail market, with 313,000 square meters added in the current year, while the net absorption remains positive at 294,100 square meters [39] - The office market is experiencing a stable rental environment, with average rents showing slight fluctuations but maintaining a relatively high occupancy rate [23][39] - The overall economic indicators suggest a mixed outlook for the Xi'an market, with growth in certain sectors like real estate, while facing challenges in others like retail and office space absorption [12][13][39]