债基指数时代，轮动制胜

Market Growth - The total scale of index bond funds in China increased from CNY 476.9 billion at the end of Q1 2023 to CNY 1,287.4 billion by the end of 2024, representing a growth rate of 170%[11] - The market share of index products in pure bond funds rose from 7% to 14% during the same period[11] Product Development - The first phase of index fund development was primarily driven by interest rate products, which accounted for 87% of all index bond funds by the end of 2024[11] - Credit index funds are in a "blue ocean" state with a total scale of CNY 126.6 billion, representing 10% of the passive bond index fund market as of December 2024[14] ETF Innovations - The approval of the first batch of benchmark market-making corporate bond ETFs in December 2024 marked a significant innovation in the bond ETF market[2] - The average remaining maturity of the components in the Shanghai and Shenzhen market-making indices is approximately 4.67 years and 3.49 years, respectively, indicating a focus on medium to long-term bonds[27] Investment Strategy - A multi-asset allocation strategy is proposed, allocating 60% to fixed positions in convertible bonds, long-term interest rate bonds, and 3-5 year credit bonds, while 40% is flexible based on market conditions[5] - The improved rotation strategy is expected to enhance portfolio returns, with backtesting showing superior performance compared to traditional strategies[48] Risk Management - The maximum drawdown for credit index funds was controlled at a median of 0.59%, indicating a favorable risk-return profile[24] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market conditions to adjust asset allocations effectively, particularly in response to monetary and credit environment changes[36]