有机硅行业深度报告：扩产周期步入尾声，新领域引领新需求

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Insights - The organic silicon industry is expected to see an improvement in its supply-demand balance as domestic capacity expansion comes to an end and overseas capacity continues to decline [4][6]. - The demand for organic silicon is projected to grow steadily, driven by both domestic and international markets, particularly in emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [4][6][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Organic Silicon: A Widely Used Silicon-Based New Material - Organic silicon compounds, particularly polysiloxanes, are extensively used in various industries due to their unique properties [14][16]. - The largest consumption of organic silicon is in silicone rubber, accounting for over 60% of total usage, followed by silicone oil at nearly 30% [16]. 2. Domestic Capacity Expansion Coming to an End, Overseas Capacity Expected to Exit - China's organic silicon intermediate capacity is projected to grow from 1.52 million tons in 2019 to 3.44 million tons by 2024, with a CAGR of 17.8% [6][22]. - The competitive environment is expected to improve as the industry sees a concentration of capacity among leading firms, with the top four companies holding a combined market share of 54.65% by 2024 [22][24]. 3. Stable Growth in Domestic Demand, Strong International Demand - The apparent consumption of organic silicon in China is expected to rise from 1.062 million tons in 2019 to 1.816 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 11.3% [6][42]. - In 2024, China's exports of polysiloxanes are projected to reach 546,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 34.2% [6][55]. 4. Supply-Demand Imbalance Expected to Ease, Margins May Improve - The organic silicon industry is anticipated to transition from a phase of oversupply to a more balanced supply-demand scenario starting in 2025, with expected supply-demand gaps of -0.9 and -11.2 thousand tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][12]. - The operating rates for organic silicon in 2024 are expected to be better than those in 2023, with a total production of 2.253 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [7][29]. 5. Investment Recommendations and Related Companies - Recommended companies for investment include Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group, Dongyue Silicon Material, and Sanyou Chemical [8].