策略观点 - 特朗普不确定性

Macro - Trump's tariff policy may accelerate inflation in the US, delaying Fed rate cuts and impacting the stock market negatively[1] - China's economy is expected to continue its recovery, with housing and durable goods sales indicating improved consumer demand[1] - Long-term economic pressures include trade wars and diminishing effects of policy stimulus, but counter-cyclical policies may adapt to circumstances[1] Technology - The technology sector is expected to outperform the market due to recovering global demand for mobile devices and AI integration[2] - Key investment themes include the promotion of AI terminals and high growth in AI server demand, with specific companies recommended for investment[2] - Catalysts for growth include domestic subsidies and advancements in AI technology[2] Semiconductor - Optimism remains for the semiconductor sector, focusing on AI and self-sufficiency in the supply chain as primary investment themes[3] - Short-term pressures on AI semiconductor stocks due to cost-effective models, but long-term demand for computing power is expected to rise significantly[3] - Recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang and Beifang Huachuang, with a new focus on mergers and acquisitions in the semiconductor industry[3] Internet - Stock price movements in the internet sector are currently driven by market sentiment, influenced by AI developments and trade tensions[4] - Key investment themes include mature businesses with growth potential and sectors benefiting from consumer recovery[4] - Recommended stocks include Tencent, NetEase, Alibaba, and Meituan, focusing on those with strong fundamentals[4] Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to outperform due to improved macro conditions and overseas interest rate cuts[6] - Innovative drugs may benefit from commercial insurance coverage, enhancing payment conditions[6] - Recommended stocks include WuXi AppTec and BeiGene, focusing on companies with strong growth potential[6] Consumer Goods - Defensive sectors like food and beverage are expected to maintain valuations and performance amid a weak environment[7] - The beer industry is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year by December 2024, driven by mid-to-high-end products[7] - Recommended stocks include Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage, focusing on companies with strong market positions[8] Automotive - New energy vehicle sales saw a 41% month-on-month decline in January, but a 40% year-on-year increase[10] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to boost sales, with specific companies like Geely and XPeng recommended for investment[10] - Performance differentiation among automakers is anticipated, with some companies showing resilience in earnings[10] Real Estate - The top 10 property developers saw a 1.5% year-on-year decline in January sales, with some companies showing significant growth[11] - New housing sales are projected to decline by 11% in 2025, while second-hand housing transactions are expected to increase by 5%[11] - Recommended stocks include China Resources Land and Longfor Group, focusing on companies with strong operational capabilities[12] Insurance - The insurance sector is expected to see strong growth in new business value, driven by favorable market conditions[13] - Life insurance companies are projected to experience double-digit growth in new business value in 2024[13] - Recommended stocks include China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance, focusing on companies with robust growth prospects[15]