睿智投资|美国经济 - PMI显示经济放缓但仍有韧性

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US January Services PMI fell to 52.8 from 54.1 in December, below the expected 54, indicating a slowdown in service sector growth but still in expansion territory[1] - The Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 from 49.3 in December, marking the first expansion in 10 months, with a corresponding GDP growth rate of approximately 2.4%[2] - The New Orders Index for manufacturing increased to 55.1, the highest in nearly three years, driven by pre-tariff rush effects[2] Group 2: Inflation and Employment - The Services Price Index decreased from 64.4 to 60.4, indicating a continued trend of easing inflation in the service sector[1] - The Employment Index in the services sector rose from 51.4 to 52.3, suggesting strong non-farm payrolls for the month[1] - The Manufacturing Employment Index improved from 45.3 to 50.3, with a decrease in the proportion of companies laying off workers[2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - PMI data has alleviated some investor concerns about inflation rebound, with US Treasury Secretary reaffirming a focus on oil prices to control inflation[3] - The financial conditions in the US have tightened due to rising dollar rates and increased market volatility, influenced by uncertainties surrounding Trump’s policies[3] - Economic growth and inflation are expected to moderate over the next two quarters, with the Fed likely to pause rate cuts in March and May, and potentially cut rates by 25 basis points in June and September[4]