食品饮料行业深度分析：国内奢侈品及高档白酒消费变化

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Market Perform" rating to the liquor sector, indicating that the performance of the sector is expected to align with the broader market trends [6]. Core Insights - The luxury goods market in China has seen significant fluctuations, with a notable decline in luxury consumption in 2022 and 2023, which is expected to continue into 2024 [6][14]. - The high-end liquor market is experiencing a slowdown in sales growth, with a shift towards mid-range and low-end products as consumers adjust their spending habits [6][52]. - Despite the overall decline in high-end liquor sales, the average selling price has been increasing, suggesting a strategy to target a smaller, more affluent customer base for higher profit margins [6][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Luxury Goods Market - China has become the second-largest luxury goods market globally, with annual growth rates exceeding 20% before 2020 [8]. - The luxury market in China saw a significant drop in 2022, with a 15% decline in consumption, marking the end of five years of continuous growth [14][15]. - In 2023, the luxury market rebounded slightly, growing by 12% to reach approximately 448.39 billion RMB, although this was still a decrease compared to 2021 [15]. 2. High-End Liquor Consumption - The high-end liquor market has faced declining sales growth since 2020, with a more pronounced downturn in 2024 [27][28]. - Major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have reported significant drops in sales growth compared to previous years, while Moutai has maintained a stable growth rate [28][29]. - The average price of high-end liquor has been rising, indicating a shift in strategy to maintain profitability despite lower sales volumes [40]. 3. Mid-Range and Low-End Liquor Consumption - There has been an increase in sales of mid-range and low-end liquors since 2021, with mid-range products showing an average growth of 16.51% from 2021 to 2024 [52]. - The market for low-end liquors has also rebounded, with significant growth observed in brands like Yili and Koutai [52]. - The shift towards mid-range and low-end products reflects changing consumer preferences and economic conditions, with a focus on affordability and accessibility [54]. 4. Marketing and Advertising Trends - Global luxury brands have increased their advertising expenditures significantly, with a 44% increase noted in 2021 [77]. - In contrast, high-end liquor brands in China have reduced their marketing budgets in response to declining sales, shifting from aggressive marketing to a more conservative approach [83]. - The overall trend indicates a cautious outlook among liquor manufacturers, with a focus on maintaining profitability amid market uncertainties [83].