策略观点：特朗普不确定性

Macro - The early implementation of Trump's tariff policy may alter the policy trajectory, with short-term inflationary pressures in the US and delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][11] - China's economy is expected to continue its recovery, with housing and durable goods sales indicating a broad improvement in consumer demand [1][11] Technology - The technology sector is anticipated to outperform the market, driven by a rebound in global smartphone and PC demand, domestic consumer electronics subsidies, and the acceleration of AI terminal penetration [1] - Recommended stocks include Xiaomi Group, BYD Electronics, and Hon Teng Precision, benefiting from domestic subsidy policies and AI integration [1][9] Semiconductor - The semiconductor sector remains optimistic, with three main investment themes: artificial intelligence, self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain, and high dividend defensive strategies [1] - Key stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang and Northern Huachuang, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions in the semiconductor industry [1][9] Internet - The internet sector is influenced by market sentiment, with positive catalysts from AI model developments and negative impacts from US-China trade tensions [2] - Recommended stocks include Tencent, NetEase, Alibaba, and Meituan, with a focus on consumer recovery and advertising revenue growth [2][9] Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to outperform the market due to improved macroeconomic conditions and the upcoming implementation of the Class B medical insurance directory [3] - Recommended stocks include WuXi AppTec, BeiGene, and Innovent Biologics, benefiting from better payment conditions for innovative drugs [3][9] Consumer Staples and Beauty - The consumer staples sector is expected to remain resilient, with beer sales projected to grow by 12% year-on-year in December 2024 [3] - Recommended stocks include Nongfu Spring and Proya, benefiting from strong brand positioning and consumer sentiment [3][9] Automotive - The automotive sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with a significant drop in January sales but a positive outlook due to new "trade-in" policies [5] - Recommended stocks include Geely and XPeng Motors, which are expected to show resilience in earnings [5][9] Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate sector shows optimism, with a projected increase in second-hand housing transactions and a focus on companies with strong commercial operations [5] - Recommended stocks include China Resources Land and Longfor Group, benefiting from improved retail business performance [5][9] Insurance - The insurance sector is expected to see strong growth in new business value, driven by improved investment returns and product profitability [6] - Recommended stocks include China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance, with a focus on stable growth and dividend yields [6][9] Capital Goods - The capital goods sector is expected to remain stable despite new tariffs, with Chinese manufacturers continuing to expand in emerging markets [7] - Recommended stocks include Zoomlion and Sany Heavy Industry, focusing on new product development and market expansion [7][9]