CSEC,China Shenhua(601088) 湘财证券·2025-02-07 10:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Shenhua is "Accumulate" (maintained) [8] Core Views - China Shenhua's 2024 performance is expected to be stable, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 57 billion to 60 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% to an increase of 0.5% [3][4] - The coal division's profit decline is the main factor affecting the overall net profit due to a decrease in average coal sales prices [4] - The company has announced a high dividend payout policy, distributing no less than 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in cash for the years 2022-2024, with an increase to 65% for 2025-2027, highlighting its investment value [7][9] Summary by Sections Recent Company Performance - Over the past 12 months, China Shenhua has experienced a relative return of -8.25% over one month, 0.78% over three months, and -11.40% over twelve months compared to the CSI 300 index [2] 2024 Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 57 billion to 60 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 27 million to an increase of 3 million yuan year-on-year [4] - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 58.5 billion and 61.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.0% to an increase of 2.2% [4] Coal Production and Sales - In 2024, the company anticipates a coal production of 327 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a sales volume of 459 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [5] - The fourth quarter saw a decline in sales volume due to lower-than-expected demand from a warm winter [5] Acquisition and Resource Expansion - The acquisition of 100% equity in Hangjin Energy for 853 million yuan will increase the company's coal reserves by 3.841 billion tons and the recoverable reserves by 2.087 billion tons, enhancing its competitive edge in the energy supply [6] Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a stable and predictable profit distribution policy, which is expected to attract long-term capital and enhance investment value [7][9] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 57.1 billion, 56.9 billion, and 58 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.88, 2.87, and 2.92 yuan [9]