森麒麟：淡季及年底费用影响，Q4盈利环比下行，摩洛哥基地放量在即

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [7]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 earnings declined sequentially due to seasonal factors and year-end expenses, but the Moroccan base is expected to ramp up production soon [1][7]. - The company achieved a net profit of approximately 2.23 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 68.7% [2][7]. - The company is expanding its overseas orders and has become a qualified supplier for major automotive manufacturers, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [7]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 7.84 billion yuan in 2023 to 13.48 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.9% [2][8]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 1.37 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.81 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.01 yuan in 2023 to 2.72 yuan in 2026 [2][8]. Market Data - As of February 6, 2025, the closing price of the stock was 24.86 yuan, with a market capitalization of 17.53 billion yuan [3]. - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 and a dividend yield of 2.49% [3][4]. Operational Insights - The company is facing cost pressures in 2024, but demand is expected to grow steadily, supported by reduced anti-dumping duties in Thailand and ongoing customer expansion [7]. - The Moroccan facility is projected to produce 6-8 million semi-steel tires in 2025, enhancing the company's high-end offerings and ability to withstand trade barriers [7].