吉利汽车：三大改革开启新一轮增长周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Geely Automobile [5][3]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile is positioned as a leader in China's independent passenger vehicle market, with a significant increase in sales and profits expected in 2024, marking the beginning of a new growth cycle driven by three major reforms: technological breakthroughs, management improvements, and brand integration [1][2][17]. - The company is expected to become the second-largest new energy vehicle manufacturer in China by 2025, capitalizing on the opportunities in the SUV and electrification markets [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, Geely's total vehicle sales are projected to reach 2.177 million units, reflecting a 29% year-on-year increase [29]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 167.684 billion yuan, a 36% increase compared to the previous year, with a net profit of 13.053 billion yuan, representing a staggering 358% year-on-year growth [30][35]. - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is as follows: 2024 revenue at 244.681 billion yuan, 2025 at 309.740 billion yuan, and 2026 at 356.494 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 16.568 billion yuan, 13.625 billion yuan, and 17.887 billion yuan [3][4]. Business Transformation Summary - Geely is undergoing significant transformations, including the integration of the Geometry brand into the Galaxy brand, and the consolidation of the Zeekr and Lynk & Co brands to enhance operational efficiency [2][17]. - The company has introduced advanced technologies such as the Thor hybrid system and the 11-in-1 electric drive, which are expected to strengthen its product offerings [2][17]. - The Galaxy series is anticipated to become a major growth driver, while the Zeekr brand is expanding into the high-end electric vehicle market and collaborating with Waymo for autonomous vehicle development [2][17]. Market Positioning Summary - Geely's market strategy focuses on leveraging its strong product capabilities and expanding its presence in both domestic and international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [38][41]. - The company has established a robust production capacity with over 20 factories domestically and in Southeast Asia, ensuring efficient support for its sales growth [38][39].