国君研究|一周研选 0205-0208

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The 2025 Spring Festival holiday saw a surge in domestic travel consumption, with inbound tourism growing rapidly, and retail dining remaining stable, driven by consumption promotion policies[1] - The "Shanghai Gold Premium" reflects market expectations for the exchange rate, currently at 7.38, and is crucial for tracking cross-border capital flows[2] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on trade relations with Mexico and Canada remains uncertain, but China's reliance on these markets is low, mitigating potential risks[4] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The technology sector is expected to lead the market during the Spring Festival and Two Sessions stock market window, with a focus on growth stocks despite short-term tariff impacts being manageable[3] - The small-cap style is projected to outperform in February, supported by quantitative models indicating a shift in market dynamics[6] - Q4 2024 saw a recovery in the IPO market, with single-account returns reaching 5.49 million, marking a new high for the quarter[7] Group 3: Sector-Specific Developments - Tesla has raised its production forecast for the Optimus robot in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the robotics sector[9] - The food and beverage sector experienced stronger-than-expected consumption during the Spring Festival, with notable sales in snacks and condiments[13] - The tightening of sanctions on shadow fleets is expected to boost the oil transportation market, leading to improved market conditions[17]