房地产行业：“去地产化”的背后——房企转型系列跟踪

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a new wave of transformation among real estate companies, driven by four main factors, suggesting that the current transformation trend may deepen compared to previous cycles [1][3][4]. - A total of 51 real estate companies with transformation intentions have been identified, and investors are encouraged to build a portfolio based on both passive and active transformation strategies [1][4]. Summary by Sections Transformation Background - The strategic transformation of real estate companies in China began around 2010, initially focusing on "real estate + X" models, but this trend faded as the market heated up again [2][10]. - The peak of transformation discussions occurred between 2015 and 2016, with a significant increase in major asset restructuring activities as companies sought to diversify [12]. Factors Driving Transformation - Four key factors are identified as catalysts for accelerating transformation: 1. Smaller companies face significant performance pressure due to market adjustments, necessitating urgent transformation [3][21]. 2. The space for continuing heavy asset real estate operations is limited for transforming companies [21][28]. 3. Some companies are under pressure to avoid delisting, prompting passive transformations [21][33]. 4. Supportive policies for equity financing and mergers and acquisitions are facilitating transformations [21][36]. Selection of Transformation Targets - The report suggests two main lines for selecting real estate transformation targets: 1. Passive Transformation: Companies nearing financial or trading delisting conditions that are forced to transform to maintain their status [4][37]. 2. Active Transformation: Companies without immediate delisting pressures that are strategically considering transformation [4][39]. Financial Performance and Market Conditions - The financial performance of transforming companies has deteriorated, with a reported 33% year-on-year decline in revenue and an 85% drop in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [21][22]. - The total inventory of transforming companies has decreased by 10% year-on-year, indicating challenges in project liquidation [26][28]. Future Outlook - The report concludes that the willingness of listed real estate companies to pursue transformation is strengthening, presenting potential investment opportunities despite inherent uncertainties and market volatility [41].