化工复盘：各轮牛市中，有哪些领涨子行业及标的？

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" and maintained [9]. Core Insights - The report reviews the performance of the chemical sector during five significant market rallies since 2005, analyzing the reasons behind the rallies, whether the sector outperformed the market, standout sub-industries and companies, and the driving factors of price increases, focusing on EPS versus PE [2][4][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The report identifies five market periods with an index increase of over 35%: 2006.1 to 2007.10, 2009.1 to 2010.1, 2014.7 to 2015.6, 2020.3 to 2021.9, and 2024.9 to present [15]. - During these periods, the basic chemical sector also experienced significant upward trends, with a focus on the reasons for these trends and the performance of various sub-industries [4][15]. Sub-Industry Performance - In the 2006.1 to 2007.10 period, the basic chemical index saw a maximum increase of 325.0%, with notable sub-industries like auxiliary materials (e.g., spandex) showing significant revenue and profit growth [5]. - The 2009.1 to 2010.1 period highlighted a recovery in valuations driven by stimulus policies, with sub-industries such as civil explosives and tires performing particularly well [6]. - The 2014.7 to 2015.6 period was characterized by policy and leverage effects, with the chemical sector's gross margin increasing from 16.3% to 18.3% [6]. - The 2020.3 to 2021.9 period saw a significant profit surge in the chemical sector, with the basic chemical index increasing by 138.4%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 102.3 percentage points [6][7]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that supply will be a core issue for the chemical sector's performance, with the current fixed asset investment growth rate declining, potentially creating opportunities for supply-side improvements [7]. - The report suggests that the chemical industry may experience marginal improvements in its economic outlook, with a focus on cyclical growth, stability, and new productive forces [7].