海外札记：春节海外回顾

Market Performance - During the period from January 24 to January 31, 2025, the AI sector negatively impacted US stock performance, with the Nasdaq index leading the decline at -2.13%[6] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 4.61%, outperforming other markets[6] - Gold and silver prices rose by 2.41% and 4.52%, respectively, while natural gas prices fell by 11.37% due to weather and sanctions[6] Economic Dynamics - The US GDP for Q4 2024 grew at an annualized rate of 2.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, with consumer spending rising by 4.2%[16] - The January FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, indicating a focus on future re-inflation risks and ruling out further rate hikes[14][16] - The Deepseek trading phenomenon has led to significant volatility in AI stocks, with investors reducing their positions during the holiday period[11] Trade Tensions - On February 1, 2025, the US imposed a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on China, heightening trade tensions[17] - The market currently perceives these tariffs as temporary, but any escalation could lead to significant adjustments in expectations and pricing[17][18] - Historical comparisons indicate that stock, currency, and commodity movements during the 2018-2019 trade tensions align with current observations[18] Asset Price Implications - Currency reactions to trade tensions were pronounced, with the Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, and Chinese yuan depreciating significantly upon tariff announcements[18] - The 10-year US Treasury yield remains in the range of 4.5% to 4.6%, suggesting relative value despite flattening yield curves due to inflation risks[18] - Gold is viewed as a risk hedge despite short-term pressures from a strong dollar, while oil prices may be less affected unless trade tensions persist[18]