宏观点评：怎么看黄金再创新高？——兼评美国1月非农就业

Employment Data - In January 2025, the U.S. added 143,000 non-farm jobs, below the expected 170,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.0%, lower than the expected 4.1%, marking the lowest since May 2024[2] - Labor force participation rate increased to 62.6%, surpassing both the expected and previous values of 62.5%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, U.S. stock markets declined, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones dropping by 1.0%, 1.4%, and 1.0% respectively[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5.8 basis points to 4.49%[4] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.4% to 108.1, while spot gold rose by 0.2% to $2860.1 per ounce[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts decreased from 1.8 times to 1.4 times, indicating a shift from anticipating two cuts to one cut[4] - The earliest expected rate cut remains in June 2025[4] Gold Price Trends - Since late December 2024, gold prices surged from approximately $2610 per ounce to nearly $2900 per ounce, a rise of 10%[5] - Gold surpassed its previous high of $2790 per ounce from October 2024[5] - Key factors for the recent gold price increase include reduced rate cut expectations, rising geopolitical uncertainties, and significant gold repatriation to the U.S.[5] Future Projections - The outlook for gold remains positive in the medium to long term, but a more volatile and oscillating price trend is expected in 2025 compared to 2024[5] - Investors are advised to wait for pullback opportunities rather than chasing high prices in the short term[5]