兼评美国1月非农就业：怎么看黄金再创新高？

Employment Data - In January 2025, the U.S. added 143,000 non-farm jobs, below the expected 170,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.0%, lower than the expected 4.1%, marking the lowest since May 2024[2] - Labor force participation rate increased to 62.6%, surpassing both the expected and previous value of 62.5%[2] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% month-on-month, exceeding expectations and the previous month's value of 0.3%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, U.S. stock markets declined, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones dropping by 1.0%, 1.4%, and 1.0% respectively[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 5.8 basis points to 4.49%[3] - The dollar index rose by 0.4% to 108.1, while spot gold prices increased by 0.2% to $2860.1 per ounce[3] Gold Price Trends - Since late December 2024, spot gold prices surged from approximately $2610 per ounce to nearly $2900 per ounce, a rise of 10%[4] - The recent increase in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: expectations of Fed rate cuts, rising geopolitical uncertainties, and significant gold repatriation to the U.S.[4] Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by ongoing central bank purchases and relatively low valuations compared to equities[5] - However, the current market conditions differ from 2024, with expectations of fewer rate cuts and a crowded long position in gold futures[5] - It is advised to wait for a pullback before making new investments in gold, as a repeat of 2024's price surge is unlikely[5]