宏观报告：过往非农，皆是序章

Economic Analysis - The January non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 143,000 jobs, below the expected 175,000, but revisions from previous months added 100,000 jobs, indicating a stable upward trend in employment[4] - The unemployment rate stands at 4.01%, suggesting no significant pressure on internal economic momentum, with a potential drop to 3.9% if annual revisions are considered[7] - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded at 50.9, indicating a recovery in manufacturing employment, supporting the view that unemployment risks are more likely to decline[7] Market Reactions - Market sensitivity to non-economic factors, particularly Trump's policies, has increased, overshadowing the impact of economic fundamentals on the dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields[3] - The dollar index showed a notable increase following Trump's announcements regarding reciprocal tariffs, highlighting the market's heightened responsiveness to political news[3] Policy Implications - Trump's ongoing reforms are viewed as potentially the largest in U.S. history, aimed at enhancing economic efficiency and fiscal sustainability in the long term[12] - The report suggests that the current economic data reflects the solid foundation of the U.S. economy prior to Biden's departure, rather than indicating immediate improvements under Trump's administration[12] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include potential unexpected rate cuts by the U.S. and aggressive trade policies from Trump, which could lead to nonlinear changes in private sector debt[2]