美国1月非农就业数据点评：失业率走低或强化美联储3月暂停降息意愿

Employment Data - In January, the U.S. added 143,000 non-farm jobs, a significant decrease from the revised 256,000 in December and below the market expectation of 175,000[3] - The three-month average for new jobs is 237,000, indicating a rising trend compared to the adjusted data from October to December 2024[3] - Private sector employment increased by 111,000, while government jobs rose by 32,000, with notable declines in leisure and hospitality sectors[15] Labor Market Indicators - The labor force participation rate rose to approximately 62.6%, while the unemployment rate decreased to about 4.0%, down from 4.1% in December 2024[19] - Permanent unemployment and re-employment rates increased slightly, while temporary unemployment and voluntary departures decreased[24] - Average hourly earnings increased by 4.1% year-on-year to $35.87, with a month-on-month rise of 0.5%[25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Job openings in December 2024 were 7.6 million, down by approximately 556,000 from November, indicating a slight easing in labor market tightness[29] - The job vacancy rate stood at 4.5%, with about 1.11 job openings per job seeker, reflecting a marginal decrease in supply-demand pressure[29] Federal Reserve Implications - The employment data may strengthen the Federal Reserve's intention to pause interest rate cuts in March, as a robust labor market supports consumer spending and mitigates recession risks[41] - Rising inflation expectations, with a 1% increase to 4.3% in February, could prompt the Fed to remain cautious about potential inflationary pressures[39]