大中华区市场预测

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed outlook for the Greater China region, with core areas in first-tier cities being more attractive for investment, while second-tier cities face challenges due to increased supply and vacancy rates [61][72]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the economic recovery is underway globally, with the U.S. and China leading growth, but the impact of rising interest rates and potential inflation remains a concern for real estate investors [4][10]. - The rental costs in the Greater China region are expected to see moderate growth, particularly in mature markets, while second-tier cities may experience increased vacancy rates and more options for tenants [4][62]. - The report emphasizes the importance of market liquidity for investors, especially as relative value may decline with rising interest rates, urging investors to act decisively [36][37]. Summary by Sections Global Outlook - Economic growth is projected to improve, with GDP growth rates expected to rise significantly over the next five years [8]. - The report notes that the downtrend in economic expectations has dissipated, with most clients no longer concerned about the potential disintegration of the Eurozone [9]. - The anticipated increase in bond yields and interest rates is expected to impact the real estate market significantly [10]. Regional Outlook - The report states that the average vacancy rate in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to rise, providing tenants with more choices [18]. - Despite increasing vacancy rates, rental growth in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to be the highest globally due to inflationary pressures [19]. - The report suggests that many markets in the Asia-Pacific region have limited room for improving space efficiency, making it challenging for tenants to offset rising costs [20]. Greater China Tenant Outlook - In second-tier cities, the rental costs for prime office spaces are only 46% of the Greater China average, with significant new supply and rising vacancy rates suppressing rental growth [61]. - The report anticipates a slight improvement in rental growth in 2014, particularly in mature markets where new supply is limited [62]. - Over 60% of new supply is expected to come from non-core areas, which will have a limited direct impact on prime rental rates [63]. Greater China Investor Outlook - The FVI index score for Greater China indicates that first-tier cities are the most attractive markets, with scores reflecting stable growth predictions [71]. - Retail properties are highlighted as the most attractive asset type in the region, while industrial properties in mainland China are expected to maintain optimistic sentiment [72]. - The report warns that rising bond yields and interest rates will likely limit investment growth in the short term, particularly in Hong Kong and Taipei [73].